Research predicts Ganga Basin will face more floods, landslides in near future

 Researchers from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) and the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur (IIT), have published a study in Scientific Reports that provides insight on how climate change and anthropogenic activities such as dam building, changes in land cover, and surface as well as groundwater removal have all affected the region. The data for the study spans decades, from 1971 to 2010. The study splits the data into two periods, pre-1995 and post-1995. The effect of human activity in the region was studied on two major tributaries of the Ganga, Alaknanda and Bhagirati, which converge at Devprayag to form the Ganga. 

Weather stations located along the rivers provided the necessary information for the study, which included data on rainfall, water discharge and sediment flow. The researchers found that post 1995, there was a striking increase in flooding events in the river basins of both Alaknanda and Bhagirati. Due to the anthropogenic activities, the rivers does not behave like they are expected to. The courses have changed and the Ganga is extremely polluted. There has also been an increase in the number of catastrophic landslides in the region. The Manheri, Tehri and Koteshwar dams on the Bhagirati have led to changes in the flow levels on the river. From 1995 to 2005, the Alaknanda Basin saw a doubling of water flow at the Joshimath weather station. 

The region covered by the study. The triangles represent dams, while the greren circles are the weather stations. (Image credit: Swarnkar, Mujumdar, Sinha / Scientific Reports)

The research suggests that after 2010, the building of dams along the Alaknanada might have modified the water activity in addition to the climatic changes. Somil Swarnkar, a postdoctoral fellow at the Interdisciplinary Centre for Water Research (ICWaR), IISc, and first author of the study says, "We observed that Alaknanda Basin has a high, statistically increasing rainfall trend, unlike the Bhagirathi Basin. Most of these trends were observed in the downstream region of the Alaknanda. Therefore, we have also seen an increase in the magnitude of extreme flow in these regions." 

The large scale hydraulic projects in the region, including dams and reservoirs have influenced the sediment transported by the rivers. Sediment depositions in the upper reaches of the Ganga have led to changes in the sediment composition downstream because of abrupt changes in the water flow. In the upper Ganga Basin (UGB), the Tehri dam plays a crucial role according to the report. The large reservoir and flow control structure blocks sediment flow from upstream, and controls the volume of water that flows downstream. 

There are 11 new dam projects planned for the Bhagirati Basin, and 16 in the Alaknanda Basin, which are likely to affect the water flow and sediment transport process in the region. The study predicts an increase in the number of extreme flows and the occurrences of floods in the Ganga Basin. However, using computer modelling to drive the decision making combined with informed planning can help reduce the number of devastating floods. Pradeep Mujumdar, corresponding author of the paper explains, "We do not have control over what happens in the atmosphere. But on the ground, we have control. Flows can be predicted using hydrological models. With this knowledge, we can develop both structural and non-structural responses to mitigate such high flows." 

There is a significant variability of the magnitude and frequency of rainfall because of changing hydrometeorological conditions across the globe. There are a number of potential causes for an increasing amount of rainfall in the region, and is an active area of research both locally and globally. Mujumdar says, "We looked at the high-intensity rainfall trends in the Bhagirathi and the Alaknanda river basins. The exact cause of increased rainfall in the region is difficult to pinpoint at this stage: climatic factors could be the primary cause, but increased moisture from surrounding regions because of human activities could also be another reason. The factors influencing the extreme rainfall trends in these river basins are at present being pursued through active research by various teams in the country. It may also be noted that attributing a single cause to extreme events is very difficult and science is being developed globally towards addressing this issue" 

The exact causes of the increased landslides were not part of the study, and is a totally different area of research. Mujumdar explains, "In this work, we are primarily focused on the hydrology of the UGB. The issues related to landslides are not covered in this work. That is a different area of research altogether." 

Scientific modelling and computation can go a long way in predicting and reducing the extreme flow events. Mujumdar says, "Scientific modelling of floods would help us to quantify the aerial extent of likely inundation in the UGB and the increasing risk of flooding. Coupling numerical weather prediction models with hydrologic models has been attempted with promising results to identify the problems. Once the problems are identified fairly accurately, engineering (eg, enhancing the structural infrastructure capability) and non-engineering (for example, low impact development measures and optimal reservoir operation) solutions may be readily developed." 

Planned hydraulic projects in the UGB. (Image credit: Somil Swarnkar, Pradeep Mujumdar and Rajiv Sinha / Scientific Reports)

Advances in technology and the development of new large scale hydraulic structures can also mitigate some of the problems. The Pashulok barrage at Rishikesh for example, has helped prevent floods and reduce extreme flow events downstream. Although the large scale hydraulic projects disrupt the flows in the rivers, they can provide much needed hydroelectric power to the region. Careful management of the dams and reservoirs can actually be used to reduce the number of floods and extreme flows. 

We asked the authors if better management of the hydraulic projects can actually help mitigate some of the disastrous consequences of global warming. Mujumdar tells us, "Yes, the large dams do help in providing water security, hydropower production and in flood mitigation, but then must be managed efficiently. Scientific methodologies and technologies exist now for better management of water infrastructure to offset the impacts of climate change." 

The Ganga is considered as the lifeline of the country, with over 70 percent of the population depending on rivers for sourcing fresh water. Extreme weather events, floods and landslides tend to disproportionately affect communities from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. The findings of this study can help inform sustainable river basin management, and encourage more serious work towards hydrology, ecology and geomorphy in the UGB.  

Study finds COVAXIN has 50% efficacy: A closer look at the research and findings

Researchers from the All India Institute of Medical Science (AIIMS) have published a study in the Lancet that pegs the effectiveness of Bharat Biotech's Covaxin, designated as BBV152, at 50 per cent against symptomatic COVID-19. The finding follows close on the heels of another study, also published in the Lancet, that shows an effectiveness of 77.8 per cent against any severity of COVID-19. The authors note that the finding should be interpreted in the context of a surge setting, and it indicates the need for a rapid rollout of both doses of vaccines, as well as continued implementation of social distancing, sanitisation and the use of masks to restrict the pandemic. 

The difference in the numbers of the observational testing and the clinical trial are not cause for alarm. Prof Naveet Wig, Head of Medicine at AIIMS, New Delhi explains, "Our results demonstrated vaccine effectiveness of 50 per cent against symptomatic RT-PCR positive SARS-CoV-2 infection, 2 weeks after complete vaccination, which further increased to 57 per cent at 6 weeks post complete vaccination. In fact, the effectiveness reached 75 per cent towards the end of the study when cases and test positivity rates were declining. It is important not to get fixated with varying effectiveness figures obtained from different studies under different conditions. Addressing vaccine hesitancy by availability of a safe and effective vaccine and achieving good pace and coverage are crucial to control the pandemic with universal vaccination. The data available till now clearly shows effectiveness and safety of Covaxin and the roll out should be continued and accelerated."

The data used in the study was collected between April 15 and May 15, 2021. At the time the study was conducted, there was limited published data on the efficacy of Covaxin. This is the first real world observational testing of the effectiveness of the vaccine, as against controlled clinical trials. The study was conducted during a spike in cases, considered to be the second wave of the pandemic in India, when the delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was prominent. The study indicates the possibly immune evasive nature of the delta variant. 

Considering the conditions under which the observational study was conducted, the findings actually indicate the effectiveness of the vaccine, even during a surge in cases and the circulation of the delta variant, which is likely to be immune evasive. Dr Manish Soneja, Additional Professor of Medicine at AIIMS, New Delhi said, "This is the first vaccine effectiveness study after approval of Covaxin which is an essential component of any vaccine roll-out program. It was carried out in early days of vaccine initiation amongst high-risk population (hospital employees) in the background of a surge dominated by a new highly infectious variant of the virus (delta variant). Vaccine effectiveness demonstrated under such conditions is reassuring of its effectiveness for large scale use."

The study estimates an effectiveness of 50 per cent against symptomatic COVID-19 cases, after an interval of at least 14 days after the administration of both doses, at 46 per cent at least 28 days before testing, and 57 per cent after an interval of at least 42 days before testing. The effectiveness was estimated to be at 47 per cent after an interval of 14 days after excluding participants with previous SARS-CoV-2 infections. A trend was identified at a higher effectiveness in females (after an interval of 14 days) at 66 per cent as against 38 per cent in males, but the study authors note that this is not significant. 

The study was conducted in a high risk population, and the differences of effectiveness in the sexes can potentially be attributed to the different roles for females and males in the hospital, as against any biological differences. The effectiveness of the vaccine by the AIIMS team is lower than the effectiveness of the phase 3 trials of the vaccine. The researchers note that there are several factors that can be responsible for the lower effectiveness in the study, as compared to the phase 3 trial. 

The study was conducted during a surge of cases in both the hospital and the general population of Delhi. The test positivity rate was at 35 per cent in Delhi on April 26, 2021, which is the highest on record since the outbreak of the pandemic. As such, the study may only represent the effectiveness of the vaccine under surge conditions. The effectiveness could have been driven further down by the circulation of the delta variant, which is considered to be a "variant of concern". The phase 3 trials were conducted when the test-positivity rate was low, and the prevalence of the delta variant among the positive cases was mostly unknown. 

The results provide additional evidence that it takes a couple of weeks, or at least 14 days for the effectiveness of the vaccine to build up, and both the doses are required for maximum effectiveness. The study also indicates a modest amount of effectiveness after just a single dose, and underscores the need for a rapid rollout of the vaccines. The data is consistent with the data from other studies and the different vaccine platforms. The study also indicates that apart from the vaccines, the continued implementation of non-pharmacological measures is necessary for restricting the spread of the virus, including social distancing, frequent sanitisation of touch points, and the use of face masks. 

Bharat Biotech's Covaxin is one of the two vaccines used by India in its immunisation drive against COVID-19, which began in January 2021. The other vaccine used in the drive is the Oxford–AstraZeneca ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, or Covishield. Both the vaccines use different strategies to evoke the immune response from the body and train it to fight off the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Serum Institute's Covishield is based on a modified chimpanzee adenovirus used as a vector, while Bharat Biotech's Covaxin is a whole virion inactivated vaccine. 

The reduced ineffectiveness of the vaccine during surge conditions is also supported by the studies of the effectiveness of another whole virion inactivated vaccine, CoronaVac which showed mixed results under surge conditions in Brazil, which were also conducted under surge settings, with the gamma variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus circulating. The estimated effectiveness of Covaxin under surge conditions with a variant of concern in circulation is modestly higher than CoronaVac. 

The data from the product development and clinical trials of Covaxin have been published in ten peer reviewed journals, making Covaxin one of the most highly published Covid-19 vaccines in the world. On November 12, Bharat Biotech announced the safety and efficacy analysis of phase 3 trials. The trial involved 25,800 volunteers in 25 sites in India, making it India's largest clinical trial for a Covid-19 vaccine.

The phase 3 trials pegged the effectiveness of Covaxin at 77.8 per cent against symptomatic Covid-19 patients, 93.4 per cent against sever symptomatic Covid-19 patients and 63.6 per cent against asymptomatic Covid-19 patients. The effectiveness was estimated at 65.2 per cent against the delta variant of the Sars-CoV-2 virus, but the study authors indicated that there was further testing needed to support this finding, and investigate the effectiveness against other variants. 

Dr Balram Bhargava, Director General, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), said, "The bench to bedside journey of Covaxin in less than 10 months showcases the immense strength of 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' along with the Indian academia and industry in fighting against the odds and carving a niche in the global community." 

The World Health Organisation granted emergency use listing to Covaxin on November 3, enabling countries to fast track the regulatory approvals necessary for importing the vaccine. Over 150 million doses of the vaccine have been manufactured, which is an important contributor to the global fight against the coronavirus. Bharat Biotech has indicated that it is on track to achieve an annualised capacity of about 1 billion doses by the end of 2021. Currently, there are ongoing controlled clinical trials of Covaxin among children between two and eighteen years of age with the results expected to be available in the fourth quarter of 2021. 

   

ISRO is recruiting junior translation officers for its Human Spaceflight Programme

The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) is recruiting junior translation officers for its human spaceflight program. This is an opportunity for translators to be a part of one of the most ambitious and exciting missions by the Indian space agency. The first of these, Gaganyaan, will undertake a human mission to low earth orbit (LEO). The posting is in the incipient Human Space Flight Centre (HSFC) at the ISRO HQ in Bengaluru. While this is a contract based opening, it is likely to convert into a permanent position, or in the words of ISRO, "continue indefinitely".

The required qualification is a Master's degree in either English or Hindi as a compulsory or elective subject, or any Master's degree in English or Hindi medium, with the other language as a compulsory or elective subject. Candidates will be checked for their precis writing skills in English and Hindi, and for their ability to translate text to English from Hindi and vice versa. The application process is online due to the ongoing pandemic, with a fee of Rs 250. The tests will be held in Delhi and Bengaluru. Those who are between eighteen and thirty five years of age can apply for the job. The last date for the application is November 20, 2021. Those interested can find all the relevant details on ISRO's official website (there is a PDF after the jump). 

There are only six vacancies, which is going to be highly contested considering the posting is at ISRO headquarters, if the volume of applications for similar postings in the past is any indication. Note that ISRO does not hire those who are overqualified for the job. ISRO faces a problem of overqualified people applying for the jobs because candidates have an almost religious fervor for potentially working at India's space agency, and are willing to work lower in the hierarchy as well as draw a lesser salary just to work at ISRO. The maiden human spaceflight mission by ISRO was originally scheduled for 2022, but due to the pandemic, has now been delayed to 2023. 

 

So there is a cloud kitchen right next to my house, I can pick up food from there directly, or get Swiggy delivery people to bring it to me. 

Even over this short distance, the Swiggy delivery people keep getting lost. One of them made no effort for delivery, and asked me to come to the place to pick it up. Most of the others who get lost do not listen to instructions as simple as "stay where you are, I will come and find you." They use their two wheelers and keep moving around, making me hunt them down on foot. 

Food in Delhi sucks, but that is a story for another day. 

Life on Venus: New study claims photosynthesis possible in Venusian clouds

 When it comes to supporting life and habitability on its surface – Venus could potentially be at the very bottom of the list. The planet, already christened 'hellish' for its incredibly hostile surface temperatures, is slowly grabbing everyone's attention with studies pointing at its flickering potential to host life.

If the detection of phosphine higher in its atmosphere last year wasn't absurd enough, a new study led by biochemist Rakesh Mogul of California State Polytechnic University has claimed that photosynthesis could be possible in the Venusian atmosphere.

"Our study provides tangible support for the potential for phototrophy and/or chemotrophy by microorganisms in Venus's clouds," said Mogul.

"We believe that Venus' clouds would make a great target for habitability or life detection missions, like those currently planned for Mars and Europa," he added.

The study has been published in the journal Astrobiology.

F

 I want a large diverse tribe who all have their own opinions, not a very tiny sheep pod. 

I do not want to argue against bulldozers who tinkle google's balls for two seconds and come up with brilliant conclusions. 

I want some competition, even the Titanic had that

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