Saturday, February 26, 2022

Ukraine crisis

This pot has been boiling for a while now in the region. But the fight is not localised, its a global one, one of democracy against authoritarianism. What is happening in Ukraine is just one battle in that fight. 

I normally stay out of politics, even with myself. What I do not like is the othering of any people, where people take a "defensive" stance and go on the offensive based on a perceived, paranoid threat. I was once asked what I would do when Muslims attacked my house. This kind of othering is what I do not like. When there is a loss of life or a threat of it anywhere in the world, the security and safety of everyone is called into question. 

The announcement of this particular war actually took place in 2007. 

One side of the story is that Kremlin wants to halt the eastward spread of all western institutions, as a democratic Ukraine would be a threat to Putin and his "cronies". Another side of the story is that Ukrainian nationalism was fostered by the Soviet Union along with the nationalism of several small nations as a counter to the biggest threat to the Soviet Union, which was Russian Nationalism. Under the influence of western fear and propoganda, Ukrainians who would have otherwise supported Russia do not, which is therefore a threat to Russia. Either way, Russia is threatened. The countries that are friendly to Russia such as Iran, Turkey and India would be seen as weak from the west. Turkey is a part of NATO and India is a part of QSD, they risk alienating their western allies if they do not condemn Russia, and at the same time cannot afford to antagonise Russia. According to Russia, the US stands to benefit anyway as sanctions would mean that US gets to export more LNG to European nations instead of Russia. If the world is not able to stop Russia from taking control of Ukraine, then China could make a similar move on Taiwan. What is at stake here is the global supply of energy resources and semiconductors. "WWIII" is not over water, but oil and chips. 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine: Professor Daniel Treisman provides insight and context








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